In our book, Scotland 2070- Healthy, Wealthy and Wise, we do not address specifically the issue of education. Not because we believe it is unimportant, quite the contrary, but because there is a risk of putting ‘the education cart’ before the ‘market horse’.
The UK and the USA both share approximately 14th place in the world rankings on education results at the age of 15, as measured by the so-called PISA rankings. (UK: Reading 14th, Science 14th, and Maths 18th). Incidentally, Scotland fares a little worse than England, a subject which has become a political hot potato recently.
The knee-jerk reaction is to fix the education system and potentially to spend more money on it. But before we jump into the education cart, consider a few factors.
Most economists point out that despite theoretical predictions, the empirical evidence of the impact of education on economic growth has long been mixed. – E.A. Hanushek, Stanford University, CA, USA and L Wosmann, University of Munich, Germany
The simple one-way relationship which so entrances our politicians and commentators- education spending in, economic growth out- simply doesn’t exist.
Furthermore, the UK is already the fourth highest spender on education at 6.2% of GDP versus the OECD average of 5% and above the USA and Germany. So be wary of simply throwing more money at education. The UK certainly needs fixing but spending more money? It’s as or more important to teach people learning habits that will serve them well throughout their lives rather than teach them ‘stuff’ that might seem really important now but less so in thirty or forty years’ time.
In any case, our biggest fear is a wasted investment. The experience of two of our authors is a case in point. The excellent Scottish education of the 1970s created an engineer and a coronary care nurse who went on to create wealth within the USA, in London and in the UAE. Scotland spent money for twenty years to lose trained people to the rest of the world. Before we carry on sponsoring the world, how about we create quality, well paid, productive and socially useful jobs locally for the people we educate.
That’s why we have prioritised promoting the big market potential that could retain the talent in Scotland and attract talented immigrants, reversing the unaffordable brain drain. Otherwise, fixing the Scottish education system is potentially a counterproductive exercise, paying for wealth created in the rest of the world.